14, Medal Count: I think his running style fits the race extremely well and jockey Robby Albarado should have him sitting mid-pack down the back stretch. The clockers at Churchill report he has looked very good this week on the track. He never really settled into a rhythm in the Arkansas Derby while stuck in about the four-path, but I expect a bounce-back performance.
15, Tapiture: Even with a victory at Churchill as a 2-year-old, he may very well go overlooked at the window, and is my prime value horse for the exacta and trifecta. The blazing pace scenario only enhances his chances. I love that California Chrome has a 10-race foundation since his debut 372 days ago makes me less concerned about whether he will struggle with the 1 ¼ miles. How good was the field he beat that day? Well, Hoppertunity, the runner-up by an ever-widening margin, would have been the second choice in the Derby until being forced to scratch because of injury. Esponiza was still essentially standing in the irons as they came off the far turn and when he said go, California Chrome took off as though there was an accelerator. 5, California Chrome: I officially climbed on his bandwagon the moment jockey Victor Espinoza asked him to run in the Santa Anita Derby. I wasn't a big fan of him before the post draw, I thought he got a dream setup in the Wood Memorial and I'm really not a big fan of him now that he's way outside. 15 Tapiture (15-1) was a bit wide and rank early in the Arkansas Derby and also has made a good impression in Louisville since arriving from Arkansas. 14 Medal Count (20-1) has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs and is one of the better distance-bred horses in the race. I actually have two that might light up the tote-board. No, he won't be 41-1 here, but he should still be an appetizing price.
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Maybe it simply took him a bit longer than the others to figure out how to play his game. He burst on the scene with a huge upset win (41-1) in the Arkansas Derby and has done everything right since. 4, Danza: One of many question mark horses in the field. Is it possible he's peaking at the right time like Super Saver, another Todd Pletcher trainee, did in 2010?
He should get a better pace scenario in than he did in the Louisiana Derby, a race where he encountered some traffic troubles heading into the far turn. 16, Intense Holiday: One of the wise guy horses in this year's field simply because of the way he's been training at Churchill Downs. Yes, his best races have come on artificial tracks and turf, but he sure trains well on dirt and is definitely an interesting proposition at 20-1. Like the favorite, he isn't bred to be anything spectacular, but he's an overachiever for sure. 12, Dance With Fate: He has only run two poor races in his eight-race career but had excuses in both those races. I look for him to rate just off a contested early pace and, when jockey Victor Espinoza asks him on the far turn, open up an insurmountable lead. That all being said, the fact is he is fast - scary fast - and I don't think those dominating wins in his last four races including the Santa Anita Derby have been a fluke.Īnd how do you not root for 77-year-old trainer Art Sherman, who tries to become the oldest conditioner to win the Run for the Roses?
5, California Chrome: Yes, I have to admit I was planning on playing against him after all, his pedigree doesn't suggest a Kentucky Derby winner and the fact he hasn't raced outside of Southern California is another big concern. Sports writer Kevin Oklobzija and Western New York OTB handicapper Todd Haight offer their picks for Saturday's Kentucky Derby: Watch Video: Derby Horse or Indie Rock Band?
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